Peak Oil

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  • Lava
    Junior Member
    • Mar 2004
    • 11

    Peak Oil

    Hello Dathorners,

    peak oil. What do you think about it?


    The Future Of Life On Earth




    I get 4.5 million hits when I search for "peak oil" on Google. I have so far found 1 (one) page where the peak oil thing is considered not true.

    Scary!

    Lava
  • Buddha
    Senior Member
    • Mar 2004
    • 825

    #2
    Ranks right up there with Global Warming on my list of bad science meant to scare the uneducated masses.
    "Whatcha mean I shouldn't be rude to my clients?! If you want polite then there will be a substantial fee increase." - Buddha

    Comment

    • Lava
      Junior Member
      • Mar 2004
      • 11

      #3
      Originally posted by Buddha
      Ranks right up there with Global Warming on my list of bad science meant to scare the uneducated masses.
      I don't get it.

      What would the purpose of "scaring the uneducated masses" be?

      The lead figures behind the peak oil idea are Matthew Simmons and Dick Cheney. Both linked closely to G. W. Bush as you may know…

      Peak oil doesn’t directly look like a communist conspiracy to me…

      Lava

      Comment

      • Buddha
        Senior Member
        • Mar 2004
        • 825

        #4
        Originally posted by Lava
        Peak oil doesn’t directly look like a communist conspiracy to me…
        Commies?

        Politics and economics aside, I suggest you first look up the "Central Limit Theorem" to understand the flaw in these peak oil data models. Then consider how URR (the big guess) can effect the prediction.

        Peak oil is a theory. It hasn't been proven. Although if they keep making predictions I'm sure they'll get it right ... soon or later.

        You really sure Dick Chaney ain't a Commie?
        "Whatcha mean I shouldn't be rude to my clients?! If you want polite then there will be a substantial fee increase." - Buddha

        Comment

        • bewick16
          Junior Member
          • Mar 2005
          • 1

          #5
          Originally posted by Buddha
          Commies?

          Politics and economics aside, I suggest you first look up the "Central Limit Theorem" to understand the flaw in these peak oil data models. Then consider how URR (the big guess) can effect the prediction.

          Peak oil is a theory. It hasn't been proven. Although if they keep making predictions I'm sure they'll get it right ... soon or later.

          You really sure Dick Chaney ain't a Commie?
          This is simply not true!!!

          In 1954 Hubbert predicted using the peak oil data model that oil production in the lower 48 would peak in 1970, it peaked in 1971.(www.hubbertpeak.com) Oil production in the lower 48 has been falling ever since.

          Even if the timescales for peak oil are incorrect, the earth is a finite size and its not going to get any bigger, oil is not going to regenerate at least not in the next billion years. Therefore peak oil will happen at some stage, so if we are aware of this fact why ignore it????? Chamberlain did that in the 1930's and if it were not for the positive pessimism (by that I mean realising that a problem exists and doing something about it before it is too late. Even though this is totally against human nature, humans like to solve problems at the very last minute, only when it has become apparent to the masses that a real problem does exist) of Churchill commies would seem like guardian angles compared to the fascist regime all of us would be living under! Ignoring a problem does not make it go away!!!

          You seem to present the 'Central Limit Theory' as a way out of this, yet I can’t not find anywhere that suggests CLT is a credible argument against peak oil; there are simply too many flaws. The most obvious one being that CLT applies only to independent variables, and production in any given year is dependent upon production from all other years, and therefore not independent!

          Am I wrong????? If so please tell me your sources??? the more information the better!!!

          Charlie

          P.S. Lava - could you tell me the site you found that says that peak oil is incorrect??? Oh and no I am by no means sure Cheney is not a commie, in fact I think you guys across the pond would be in a lot better position if he were!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          Comment

          • Frank Hagan
            Senior Member
            • Mar 2004
            • 724

            #6
            The focus on one type of fossil fuel is short sighted. While its too expensive to get now, we still have plenty of oil in reserve in shale oil which isn't inlcuded in the "peak oil" calculations, and coal in large enough supply to last the next 100 years if it replaced all of our energy needs in this country.

            Price is the only concern, as its more expensive than pumping "cheap oil" out of the ground. There's a book I've been meaning to get ... "The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy", by Peter W. Huber, Mark P. Mills, ISBN 0465031161 (Amazon.com link is at http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/AS...07759-3092768). Peter Huber was interviewed on a radio show, along with another energy expert, and the energy expert grudgingly agreed that he was right on his most salient point: there is no shortage of energy in the world, but oil is the cheapest alternative right now, and we will continue to use it until it is used up.

            Comment

            • Frank Hagan
              Senior Member
              • Mar 2004
              • 724

              #7
              Hey, are these guys using the oil company listed "reserves" as their starting point?

              Comment

              • Lava
                Junior Member
                • Mar 2004
                • 11

                #8
                More horror:



                Here in Europe, we read every day in the newspapers that more and more companies are moving their business from Western to Eastern Europe. The people in Eastern Europe are generally well educated and motivated, so nothing wrong with that I guess, and the companies get heavy tax benefits when they move from west to east.

                These tax benefits however will be paid for by the enormous amounts of money the Western European EU countries must pump into the Eastern EU countries.

                The time will come when the salaries and costs in the Eastern European countries are so high that the companies have to relocate again. Where to? Asia, Africa...?

                In 10 years, the majority of the people in North America and Europe will be working full time in labor camps for food stamps...

                Comment

                • Frank Hagan
                  Senior Member
                  • Mar 2004
                  • 724

                  #9
                  If there are enough controls in place, the marketplace will take care of that; you have to adjust your tax policy to retain the companies you want to keep, and at some point move the debtor nations to creditor nations within the EU. (I think Ireland is facing that soon ... they were getting much more from the EU than they were putting in, but when I was over there a couple of years ago, they were talking about the days ahead when they would have to pay more to the EU than they would get back.)

                  I'm a "less government" kind of guy, so my real thoughts would be heresy to Europeans (full market forces, no incentive money to debtor nations, etc.) In fact, they would be heresy here in the US, where our states play the role the nations in the EU play in this kind of thing.

                  Comment

                  • Lava
                    Junior Member
                    • Mar 2004
                    • 11

                    #10
                    Originally posted by bewick16

                    P.S. Lava - could you tell me the site you found that says that peak oil is incorrect??? Oh and no I am by no means sure Cheney is not a commie, in fact I think you guys across the pond would be in a lot better position if he were!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                    Here it is:

                    In economics literature, the rhetoric about "market failure" too often serves as a mask for boundless faith in the power of the state. D.W. MacKenzie examines

                    Comment

                    • Buddha
                      Senior Member
                      • Mar 2004
                      • 825

                      #11
                      Originally posted by bewick16
                      In 1954 Hubbert predicted using the peak oil data model that oil production in the lower 48 would peak in 1970, it peaked in 1971.(www.hubbertpeak.com) Oil production in the lower 48 has been falling ever since.
                      Does Hubbert's model taken into account the creation of EPA and the environmental movement of the 60's? These were and are rather big factors effecting oil production in the US even today. The model may fit the the events but does that make it correct?

                      The model only considers Cumulative Production, Reserves, Undiscovered which are use to try to predict the Ultimate. Social factors are not considered neither is consumption. Your average consumer isn't concerned with the Ultimate but with the price. Danger today is demand unstripping supply. When your average consumer can't afford oil any more will it really matter how much is left?

                      In 15 years or less, China will be consuming as much oil as the US. That's only if supply can keep up demand. Some where along the line production capacity will be reached and the price will sky rocket. Market forces will bring the social change necessary to curb the worlds dependecy on oil.

                      I don't need the peak oil model to know production capacity has already been reached. How many times has OPEC raised oil production quotas? How much more oil are they actually producing? We're already there and China wants 7.5% more oil every year.

                      As for my CLT arguement I was thinking the variable were too dependent on guess work. Undiscovered oil is a total guess. Vary it by a few percent and see how much the mid-point swings.
                      "Whatcha mean I shouldn't be rude to my clients?! If you want polite then there will be a substantial fee increase." - Buddha

                      Comment

                      • Jonathan
                        Senior Member
                        • Mar 2004
                        • 1229

                        #12
                        Ugh, I hate to think about China grabbing more and more oil.
                        It just helps drive the prices up here
                        "How can someone be so distracted yet so focused?"
                        - C

                        Comment

                        • Buddha
                          Senior Member
                          • Mar 2004
                          • 825

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Jonathan
                          Ugh, I hate to think about China grabbing more and more oil.
                          It just helps drive the prices up here
                          Here and every other free market economy in the world. However, in China the price is one of the lowest in the world because they don't have a free market.
                          "Whatcha mean I shouldn't be rude to my clients?! If you want polite then there will be a substantial fee increase." - Buddha

                          Comment

                          • Lava
                            Junior Member
                            • Mar 2004
                            • 11

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Buddha

                            In 15 years or less, China will be consuming as much oil as the US. That's only if supply can keep up demand. Some where along the line production capacity will be reached and the price will sky rocket. Market forces will bring the social change necessary to curb the worlds dependecy on oil.
                            Hmmm... If I understand the theory of PO correctly, the problem isn't that we just can’t afford to fill up our SUV:s with gas anymore but that the global economy will collapse completely.

                            The PO people point out that even food is produced and processed with the help of “cheap” oil. Add high permanent unemployment (which we already have here in Europe) to that and the following social unrest. I don't put much trust in the market forces since they are in fact responsible for our oil dependency. Just consume like crazy, max out your credit card and pay insane prices for housing and everything will be OK...

                            Comment

                            • Buddha
                              Senior Member
                              • Mar 2004
                              • 825

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Lava
                              Hmmm... If I understand the theory of PO correctly, the problem isn't that we just can’t afford to fill up our SUV:s with gas anymore but that the global economy will collapse completely.

                              The PO people point out that even food is produced and processed with the help of “cheap” oil. Add high permanent unemployment (which we already have here in Europe) to that and the following social unrest. I don't put much trust in the market forces since they are in fact responsible for our oil dependency.
                              I said economics will force the change and I never said it was going to be a pleasant experience. Such change never is pleasant. I agree with the PO people to some extent on the consequences of our dependancy on oil however I think their science has an aganda though.
                              "Whatcha mean I shouldn't be rude to my clients?! If you want polite then there will be a substantial fee increase." - Buddha

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