Peak Oil

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Lava
    Junior Member
    • Mar 2004
    • 11

    #16
    The oil price has been over $60/barrel for quite some time now. Some "experts" predicted last spring that the high oil prices were temporary and that the price for a barrel of sweet crude would be around $35 in June.

    These are my predictions:

    End of September 2005: $70+

    End of November 2005: $80+

    End of March 2006: $100+

    Is peak oil already here?

    What is your opinion?

    Comment

    • Frank Hagan
      Senior Member
      • Mar 2004
      • 724

      #17
      These numbers are "soft", in that I don't have the reference in front of me, but they are close: For North America, when oil gets to about $60 a barrell, its cheaper for us to extract the oil from the oil shale and oil sands in our northern mid-western states or in Canada. A little higher than that and I've heard it makes sense to make gasoline out of coal. At that point, the "reserves" the Peak Oil people don't count come into play, and we have quite a bit more time (100 years or so at the current rate of increase in consumption).

      I would like to see us get to that point, and quit buying any oil from any country that is not a western democracy. That would allow the developing countries to buy the tryant oil at cheaper prices, and would make the oil exporting countries in the middle east take their rightful place in the world, as impoverished, backward places hardly worth thinking about.

      Comment

      • Buddha
        Senior Member
        • Mar 2004
        • 825

        #18
        I like your prodiction Lava such prodictions should increase exploration and innovation across the energy market.

        The price of oil isn't $60 today, it's $60 dollars for a barrel of oil in September. Because of that gap of time from bid to delivery, oil is bound to increase on fear and speculation due to the turmoil in the Middle East and Europe more than anything else at the moment. That's just the way the commodity markets work. Isn't like the last month has been reassuring.

        The National Weather Service hasn’t yet released a winter forecast. It's due in October if I'm not mistaken.

        Energy independence would be a good thing.
        Last edited by Buddha; 08-07-2005, 06:19 PM.
        "Whatcha mean I shouldn't be rude to my clients?! If you want polite then there will be a substantial fee increase." - Buddha

        Comment

        • Frank Hagan
          Senior Member
          • Mar 2004
          • 724

          #19
          Yep, the "market forces" that were criticized earlier in this thread are the very thing that could (will) solve the problem. Its messy sometimes, so the trick is trying to figure out which measures you take that won't simply delay the pain and cause it to be worse than it would be normally.

          Comment

          • Lava
            Junior Member
            • Mar 2004
            • 11

            #20
            Originally posted by Lava
            The oil price has been over $60/barrel for quite some time now. Some "experts" predicted last spring that the high oil prices were temporary and that the price for a barrel of sweet crude would be around $35 in June.

            These are my predictions:

            End of September 2005: $70+

            End of November 2005: $80+

            End of March 2006: $100+

            Is peak oil already here?

            What is your opinion?
            So, I was slightly "optimistic" about the September end price. Even if it was over $70/barrel in September a cople of times due to Katrina, I'd say the "fair" September end price was around $66 - $67/barrel. Not badly predicted if I may say so...

            Now, Q4-2005 is supposed to be very interesting. Let's see if my November figure is close or not.

            Discuss!

            Comment

            • Frank Hagan
              Senior Member
              • Mar 2004
              • 724

              #21
              Originally posted by Lava
              So, I was slightly "optimistic" about the September end price. Even if it was over $70/barrel in September a cople of times due to Katrina, I'd say the "fair" September end price was around $66 - $67/barrel. Not badly predicted if I may say so...

              Now, Q4-2005 is supposed to be very interesting. Let's see if my November figure is close or not.

              Discuss!
              November's just started, but it looks like the usual annual fluctuations are taking place ... oil is hovering around $60 a barrel, and the predictions are that it will come down more as it is "unsustainably high". The hysteria over the "3rd quarter profit" of oil companies will be muted when their profits for the entire year are calculated (for a lot of reasons, that "3rd quarter profit" number is absolutely bogus ... for one, higher crude prices aren't reflected in much of it as retail prices surge while crude at the old price is still in the pipeline, and the third quarter is traditionally the highest revenue quarter due to summer driving).

              So instead of $80 a barrel at the end of November, I'm thinking we'll be down to a still high price of $52.

              Comment

              • Frank Hagan
                Senior Member
                • Mar 2004
                • 724

                #22
                Originally posted by Lava
                The oil price has been over $60/barrel for quite some time now. Some "experts" predicted last spring that the high oil prices were temporary and that the price for a barrel of sweet crude would be around $35 in June.

                These are my predictions:

                End of September 2005: $70+

                End of November 2005: $80+

                End of March 2006: $100+

                Is peak oil already here?

                What is your opinion?
                Latest price for "sweet light crude" I have seen was $59.31 a barrel as of 12/2/05. Analysts think it may bump up a bit again, but it seems to have stabilized though the end of the year. Retail prices of gasoline and home heating oil are still about 12 - 15% higher than last year, though.

                I don't think peak oil is here already, and the hysteria of this past summer is but a faded memory for most people. I'm surprised at the number of people sighing relief that gas is "only" $2.33 here in California!

                Comment

                • Grunfeld
                  Senior Member
                  • Mar 2004
                  • 209

                  #23
                  You don't want to know what it is in Nova Scotia Canada.... it will blow you away .....
                  Cheers,

                  Gary
                  (This space for rent)

                  Comment

                  • Frank Hagan
                    Senior Member
                    • Mar 2004
                    • 724

                    #24
                    Originally posted by Grunfeld
                    You don't want to know what it is in Nova Scotia Canada.... it will blow you away .....
                    Somewhere around .90 per liter? That's what it was in Toronto when I was there this past week.

                    The price of the crude is the same; maybe less, since Canada is an oil-exporting nation. The only reason you pay more is because of the tax structure.

                    Comment

                    • Anthony
                      Member
                      • Apr 2004
                      • 30

                      #25
                      99 cents for regular here in Montreal, Canada. 1.06$ a liter for my 91 octane

                      But Frank is right. IT's because of the tax structure. We have a federal excise tax, goods and services tax, municipal transit tax, provincial excise tax, provincial sales tax (all calculated above the federal one, so...without tax + federal tax = total. This is where they add on the provincial aspect of taxes afterwards)

                      Comment

                      • Ian
                        Member
                        • Mar 2004
                        • 64

                        #26
                        Not sure if this has been said, but about peak oil being hit. Its a bit true and a bit of a myth in my opinion. We are running out of cheap oil due to high demand. Demand is also rising faster than new sources are coming online.

                        As for how much oil we have, we have a lot of it, some people think we can last well past 2050 if we bring the tar sands online and other sources (Should we do this, is another question). The cheap oil that bubbles out of the ground is running out, but there is harder to get to oil everywhere. Its not even that the cheap stuff is running out, but more like there is not enough of it flowing to keep up with demand.

                        Also oil has constantly gone up in price because its always getting harder to find, as the price goes up, it makes it more feasible to dig the harder stuff like the tar sands. There is no profit in tar sands if oil prices go to low. Eventually and hopefully it will become more feasible to switch to clean energy.

                        Another thing people often forget is refining capacity. (turning the oil into gas) Our refining capacity on the planet is getting very outdated and behind. Hurricane Katrina estroyed a bunch of that capability. You can have all the oil in the world, but if you don't have facilities to refine it than you've got a problem.

                        I think the real issue is whether we should be pursuing oil as a major energy source. We will need an alternative. Oil is dirty, costs a lot, and ancient technology uses it. It will also eventually run out. There is plenty of money to be made in clean energy.
                        www.ianhoar.com - A place to geek out

                        Comment

                        Working...